Colby Cummings, host of The Football Discussion and Lets Cash, is back to serve a winning Super Bowl betting slate. We haven’t lost a bet in three weeks, and are going to try to keep the hot streak going to end the year.
Performance Last Week
Conference Championship weekend was a fun one. We got to see two first-ballot Hall-of-Famers go head to head in the NFC. Then we got to see two MVP candidates who will dominate for years to come in AFC. Our bets went 2.35-0 after hedging KC moneyline pre-match. You can follow these live picks on Twitter @BasedColby. That puts us at roughly 114-65 (63.53%) on the year, well over our 55-57% goal.
I never fully bought into Green Bay. I thought the defense would get exposed, and despite 3 Tom Brady INTs, they still did. They allowed 31 points, including an inexplicable Scotty Miller deep pass TD before half and a sensational run by RB Leonard Fournette aided by poor tackling. We hit our teaser with TB +10 and over 44.5 total points easily. Even at 7-5 I knew Tampa Bay was not the team you would want to see, and here comes Brady once again.
I predicted KC would flip the switch and win on Sunday. They did, but I hedged the game, diminishing our return. However, it locked in a guaranteed 1.35 units of profit after TB won outright, and when we are well over 60% on the year, I’ll take guaranteed profits to the bank everyday.
I’ve served my readers over 60% on the year, so allow me some leeway here. I don’t have many bets I’ll be placing this week. Even on the biggest betting day of the year where even your grandma is calling her bookie, I’m not going to have much action this week. I will still however point you in the direction of some bets I find interesting and like, just not enough to personally bet.
We have a conundrum this week. All the numbers I use in my analysis of games favor Tampa Bay. But I still lean Kansas City. Therefore, I wont be betting the game on the spread or moneyline. But don’t worry I’ll still breakdown the matchup for you here so you can still make your own estimation of the matchup if you still plan to bet a side on Super Bowl Sunday.
- TB Offense vs KC Defense
- 3rd DVOA vs 22nd
- 5th pass DVOA vs 16th
- 10th run DVOA vs 31st
- 5th EPA/play vs 19th
- TB 11-8 ATS vs KC 8-10 ATS
- TB 11th strength of schedule vs KC 25th
The way KC played in the Conference Championship has me worried. But so does LT Eric Fischer’s Achilles injury. We saw how the Tampa Bay pass rush was able to exploit OT David Bakhtiari’s injury vs the Packers. Additionally, I personally don’t see this KC defense playing out of their minds once again. They won’t clamp the Buccaneers WRs like they did Buffalo’s. But its Mahomes were talking about here. And Andy Reid off a bye week. Its a very conflicting game, as any good Super Bowl should be.
Chiefs in the 1st Quarter
The one bet I do like this week is Chiefs 1st Quarter -0.5 at +110 odds. Expect Andy Reid’s scripted plays to work to perfection. Tom Brady has also only scored 3 points in the first quarter in his previous 9 Super Bowl trips. I’ll take it to win a unit. That’s all for me this week, but as promised I’ll add a few more bets I’ll keep an eye one and you should as well.
- Game tied at halftime and Chiefs to win 2nd half at +1800 odds
- Chiefs to win first half, second half to be a tie at +4000 odds
- Travis Kelce MVP odds at +1300 ( 13/1)
I wish you the best of luck with your Super Bowl betting. Be sure to tune into Lets Cash this offseason as we kick off a series full of betting strategies and advice to make you a profitable bettor. And for all you football junkies, check out The Football Discussion for all things NFL this offseason.