CROW WORTHY

Reinventing Sports Culture. For the fans, by the fans.

Ryan’s MLB Sick Pix: 4-8

Here are my MLB Sick Pix for 4-8!

Cubs-Pirates

Kris Bryant has been heating up reaching base 5 times in the first two games of the series. Bryant also has 3 hits in 8 career at bats including a home run against Tyler Anderson (Pirates starter). I like Bryant to get two hits tonight (+210).  Joc Pederson is 2-4 in his career against Anderson, so I like him to have a bounce back game. Joc has been almost a completely different hitter this year and his advanced stats are so different from years past. His launch angle is higher than ever, while his average exit velocity has plummeted 10 miles per hour. His hard contact % is down to just 20% while fly balls and ground balls represent every single ball he’s put in play (0% line drive).

Cubs moneyline is the play for this game as they are the better team, they just need to cut down on the punchouts. Philip Evans 2+ hits against Arrieta seems like a solid play, as Evans has been very solid at the plate and almost always makes contact against a pitcher who’s over the hill as Arrieta is. For total runs I lean towards the under 8.5 as neither team has been putting up great scoring numbers, but this Cubs team still has some great hitters who are more then capable of scoring 9 by themselves. Baez has been terrible so far this year at the plate, I wish they offered batter strikeout props, because he’s good for at least two per day. He is one of the worst contact guys in the league, and it’s sad how high his strikeout % is. 

Rockies-Diamondbacks

Both teams are off to dreadful starts that neither saw coming. I give the Rockies the edge as Jon Gray is better than Merrill Kelly and the pitching edge can hopefully prove to be a true advantage. The Rockies main hitters all have decent success against Kelly in their careers. Tapia 3-6 with 2 rbis and no strikeouts. Story is 3-9 with a homerun, Blackmon is 3-6, and McMahon is 2-9 with a homerun. Story has not gotten a hit in his previous 3 games, and the upcoming free agent is not doing himself any favors.

Today should be a good Story game as he has some success against the pitcher, as well as the fact that his team needs a victory today because a 2-5 start is not ideal at all. +270 on a Story home run could be a solid play as balls fly at Coors and hopefully, they start flying out for this stud shortstop. I like under 11 runs in this game as it should be a close game.

Orioles-Red Sox

The Orioles swept the Red Sox in the opening series at Fenway. Matt Harvey’ on the mound today looking to continue his comeback after posting a solid performance in his last start. Coming off a comeback win against the powerhouse Yankees, in which they gunned Urshela out at the plate, I see the Orioles coming out hot. I like their moneyline +147 but the safe play could really be the +1.5. Cedric Mullins 2+ hits at +200 seems like a solid play as he’s hitting .480 on the season and had a 5-5 game in the final game of their first series and 2 hits in the other two games.

Alex Verdugo has been pretty bad at the plate this year and is so due for a homerun. I think today could be a great time for it and at +430 it could be a nice little addition to your MLB sick pix. Verdugo just has not made hard contact with many pitches this year, (5% hard contact rate) compared to 87% medium strength. He just needs to barrel up a ball (which he has not done once in 22 plate appearances) and his strength will send it over the wall. Despite not making hard contact this year, his exit velocity is not that much lower than his career average, as his average launch angle is actually almost double last year.  

White Sox-Royals

The Royals have started the season off scoring runs like crazy. I love over 8 in this game as both teams are more than capable of scoring. With Lynn pitching I like the White Sox moneyline. The prop double of 7 strikeouts and win at +200 could be nice too. While homeruns are not currently offered on FD for this game, I like Salvador Perez 2+ hits and a homerun as he has crushed Lynn in his career (.385 average and 2 home runs).

Mariners-Twins

Kyle Seager has hit two home runs in 10 career at bats against Berrios. For +600 sign me up for number 3. Coming off a 6 inning, 12 strikeout no-hitter, Berrios should show up again today because he has some nasty stuff. Max Kepler 2+ hits for +220 seems solid as he has crushed Marco Gonzales in his career. Twins moneyline is the side to pick in this game as they have the better team and pitcher as well as the fact that they are playing at home.

Angels-Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are coming off a bad game where they lost 2-1 and lost two of three games to the Rangers. While they are playing at home, I give the Angels the edge here especially with the line being even. The Blue Jays can be a very good team this year, but until springer comes back from injury, they will struggle to consistently beat good teams. There are no props currently up but Mike Trout has been doing his normal stuff hitting home runs and knocking runners in so I expect him to have another great game against an average starter. 

A’s-Astros

The A’s are 1-6 so far while the Astros have a 5-1 record. The Astros are already 4-0 this year against Oakland and the trend should continue.  Kyle Tucker has been great with 3 straight games with a home run. While props are not up yet either for this late game, the odds are going to be high on Tucker’s home run, and he is red hot, so might be worth a little sprinkle on your MLB sick pix. 

Official MLB Sick Pix

Cubs Moneyline 

Jake Arrieta 4/5+ strikeouts and win +260/+390

Orioles +1.5 

Cedric Mullins 2+ hits +200

Alex Verdugo home run +430

Rockies and under 12.5 +170

Over 8 runs White sox- Royals

White Sox Moneyline

Kyle Seager home run +600

Twins Moneyline

Astros and over 9.5 +195

Angels Moneyline