CROW WORTHY

Reinventing Sports Culture. For the fans, by the fans.

From Christopher Hanewinckel

NFL Season Win Total Bets, Part 3

You guessed it, it’s time for some more NFL win total bets.  I know some of you came here for NBA playoffs content, or some MLB futures, but you’re out of luck today.  We’re back on the football train, and honestly we’re riding first class with the quality of these win total bets I’m about to discuss.  So sit back, relax, and hit the Cowboys over.

Chicago Bears: 7.5 Wins (Over)

I think a 7.5 win total over/under is a really well set line for the Bears this season.  They have gone 8-8 in the past two seasons and have some question marks surrounding them.  Will the offensive line be able to hold their own?  How will the secondary hold up after losing Kyle Fuller?  And most importantly, how will [insert starting QB here] perform? 

The reason I like the over is because I think the starting QB will be better than Trubisky was the past two seasons.  Whether it’s Dalton or Fields (likely Fields for the majority of the season), it’s hard to be worse than Money Mitch was.  And they still have the majority of the defensive pieces that have made them dominant in the past.  Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson, all still there.

Allen Robinson and David Montgomery are both extremely skilled players on the offensive side of the ball and should help whoever is under center.  The defense figures to be one of the better units in the league, and with good offensive skill positions and improved QB play, I’m comfortable taking the over on the Bears this season.

Green Bay Packers: 10.5 Wins (Under)

This win total is all about Aaron Rodgers, and I know I’ve talked about this topic a lot so I’ll try to keep it short.  The Packers cannot get double digit wins without Aaron Rodgers.  He was the MVP last year and has been one of the best quarterbacks in football for a very long time.  They had the 15th ranked defense last year, and the 1st ranked offense. 

That offensive ranking came as a result of Rodgers throwing 48 touchdowns (most in the league by 8).  No Rodgers, no elite passing offense.  This team becomes middle of the road if he’s not on the field.  And as I’ve said, I don’t see any possible scenario where he is on the field for Green Bay.

Tennessee Titans: 9.5 Wins (Over)

This team went 11-5 last year and have since added one of the best receivers in football in Julio Jones.  Offensively, this team is stacked.  Pro Football Focus gives them the 14th best offensive line in the league.  Derrick Henry is coming off of a 2,000+ yard season.  A.J. Brown paired with Julio Jones is arguably the best receiving duos in the league, and Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 quarterback as a Titan.  Defensive coordinators are going to cry themselves to sleep trying to figure out what player to focus on stopping, and I expect Tennessee to have a top-5 offense this season as a result.

The defense is where things get dicey.  They added Bud Dupree to help aid their pass-rushing woes, and Caleb Farley should play well as a rookie at the CB position.  But the defensive line and remaining secondary play (outside of Kevin Byard) could cause trouble.  The Titans gave up 27.0 PPG last season (24th in the league) and haven’t gotten significantly better.  But, given their 11-5 record last year and high offensive expectations, I think they will hit the over.  Their path should be easier than most, given the Texans and Jaguars are both in their division.  That should equal four easy wins.

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5 Wins (Under)

Yeah yeah, I know they went 12-4 last year and I often use past season precedent in my win totals analysis.  But you know what else they did?  Lost to Jared Goff, who was both injured and playing like a bum, in the Wild Card round.  Russell Wilson started the season searing hot, and quickly took a step into the refrigerator and cooled down for the second half of the year.

To be honest, I don’t have that much confidence in Russ, despite the great receiving weapons he has.  He can’t run the way he used to and doesn’t have the support of a really strong running game.  The offensive line is just OK, but they gave up the 2nd most sacks per game last season (3.1).  What really worries me is the defense.  Jamal Adams is a pass-rushing linebacker, not a safety.  And when you realize that, you can see that this secondary is like a JV team.

Last year they gave up the third most passing yards per game.  And in a division that features Matt Stafford, Kyler Murray, and the 49ers offense, that is a weakness that will seriously cost you.  I’m hitting the under here because I have doubts about Russ being able to cook in this offense and the ability of the defense as a whole (particularly the secondary).

Washington Football Team: 8.5 Wins (Under)

When it comes to the NFC East, I am certainly not lacking bold takes.  I know most people believe WFT will hit the over here.  Their defense is one of the best.  Their offensive line is solid.  Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are promising young skill position players.  Ryan Fitzpatrick just discovered a dinosaur fossil in his beard.  And there’s the rub.  I think the Fitzmagic has finally run out after countless years.

But seriously, where is all the Fitzpatrick hype coming from?  The last full season he played, 2019, was terrible.  He threw 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and had a 5-8 record in games he started.  The last full season he played before that was 2015.  I can’t see him winning 9 games, I just can’t.  This team has an incredibly bright future, particularly defensively.  But they still are in desperate need of a quarterback.  A 38 year old journeyman who is not used to playing a full season won’t get it done. 

And yes, I am biased because I have a lot of confidence in the Cowboys and the Giants.  If I’m right, I’ll be a legend.  If I’m wrong, I’ll be laughed out of town, and everyone will forget that Terry said “The Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts because they’re keeping Julio.”  It’s a risk I’m willing to take.