CROW WORTHY

Reinventing Sports Culture. For the fans, by the fans.

Gambling Cheat Sheet: National Championship

All good things come to an end. After a tournament with upsets, close games, and blowouts we’ve reached the National Championship game. If this game is even half as entertaining as the UCLA-Gonzaga game, I’ll be more than happy.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga

I think it’s fair to say that for maybe 80% of the season this was the National Championship matchup everyone wanted to see. Think about it, the #1 and #2 ranked teams for the majority of the season, regular season game cancelled, and both play an exciting style so how could this go wrong?

At this point we’ve been over the statistics for both teams many times. We’ve pointed out that Gonzaga is the highest scoring team in the nation, and that they score over 50 points per game in the paint. I have also been over Baylor being one of the best perimeter defensive teams in the country, along with having multiple guys who shoot from deep at a high clip, so why should I beat a dead horse and repeat myself? If you don’t know these teams, and how they play by now odds are you shouldn’t be betting this game anyways……unless you’re just tailing my picks. In that case, you still don’t need repetitive information since you’re blindly following me.

-4.5?

The line is set at Gonzaga -4.5 which is kind of surprising to me. Early this year before their matchup was cancelled the line was at 6.5 for Gonzaga, and other than the blowout Baylor put on Houston, I didn’t really see them improve by two points. Gonzaga is coming off one of the greatest games I’ve ever watched, and are now just 40 minutes away from being the first team since Bobby Knights Indiana team to finish the season as undefeated national champs, can they do it? On the other hand, Baylor comes in just having blown the doors off Houston, and is trying to win their first ever championship. Either way, we are going to witness one school win it’s first ever championship, and in my opinion that’s awesome.

What I predict & my National Championship bets

I’ve been back and forth since Saturday night on how I see this game going, and I finally think I’ve settled on one scenario. I’ve made it a point to never bet against Gonzaga because they have been rolling against everyone. As strongly as I stuck to that philosophy this year, I think now more than ever is the time to hop off that wagon and bet Baylor. Gonzaga is by far the more well rounded team, but Baylor is dynamic. Baylor’s ability to guard on the perimeter, and with someone like Vital who is strong, but agile enough to slow down Timme, makes me really like Baylor.

Listen, we know that you can’t completely stop Timme, it’s just not going to happen. But if they can just slow him down a little, I really like Baylor’s advantage on the perimeter. I see Gonzaga going on a small run to start this game, and then Baylor to come back and make it interesting. It’s all predicated on Baylor shooting well from the perimeter, and their ability to slow down Timme. If they can do those two things, they win this game outright.

Bets

*Baylor +4.5

*Baylor ML +160

*Over 158.5

-the remaining picks I’m listing are leans. I haven’t exactly locked them into my card, but I’m thinking about it.

* Gonzaga +2.5 first half

*Over 78.5 first half

*Baylor over 35.5 points first half

*First player to score:

*Davion Mitchell +550

*Jalen Suggs +500

*Drew Timme +350

Last college basketball wrap up

Since I joined Crow Worthy at the tail end of the regular season it’s been a wild ride. We’ve had 6-1 days, we’ve had 2-3 days, but nevertheless we ended the season in the green. Aside from Illinois ripping my heart out I think this season has been extremely entertaining and am rather sad it’s over. I thank all 3 of you readers for taking the time to check out my stuff, and hope you continue to follow me now that I’ll be pivoting to the NBA, and MLB. Good luck to everyone tonight!